Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
